News from iPredict
Wellington Central MP Grant Robertson is now overwhelmingly picked to become the next leader of the Labour Party by the end of the year, according to the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict.
Another potential Labour leadership contender, Andrew Little, is not expected to remain in parliament once special votes are counted, with National now picked to gain one more list seat at Labour’s expense.
• There is a 79% probability David Cunliffe will depart permanently as Labour leader by the end of year (up from 50% last week) and a 92% probability he will depart by the end of 2015 (up from 83%)
• Grant Robertson is favoured to become the next leader of the Labour Party (77% probability, up from 47% last week), followed by “other who WAS an MP on 30 September 2013” (11%, down from 24%), followed by “other who was NOT an MP on 30 September 2013” (7%, down from 12%), followed by David Parker (4%, down from 5%), Jacinda Ardern (2%, down from 5%) and Andrew Little (2%, steady)
• John Key is expected to remain National leader until at least the end of 2016 (73% probability, up from 71% last week)
• Paula Bennett is favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises, (33% probability, down from 34% last week), followed by Steven Joyce (27%, down from 33%), Bill English (10%, down from 12%), Jonathan Coleman (8%, up from 1%) and Simon Bridges (7%, down from 8%)
Labour makes decisions about leadership process