Poll shows high confidence of box office success for release of The Hobbit

News from UMR
Eighty-four per cent of New Zealanders expect the Hobbit film will be successful at the box office, according to a UMR Research poll released yesterday.

UMR’s fortnightly Omnibus Survey says that 64% believe it will be a major success. 15% are unsure whether it will be a success or failure. Only one per cent think it will be a flop.

Groups that are particularly optimistic include:

• 30-44 year olds (71% expect a major success).
• People with personal incomes from $30-$50k (71% major success).
• Wellingtonians (70% major success).

Demographic groups who are less optimistic include:

• Over 60 year olds (56% expect a major success).
• Christchurch residents (60% major success).
• People with incomes below $30k (62% major success).

The numbers suggest, however, that the film may face challenges in terms of translating this optimism into actual attendance.

• Only 18% of New Zealanders say that they have been closely following the build-up to the Hobbit movie.
• To put this in context, interest in the build-up to the Hobbit ranks only 108th out of the 112 news stories UMR has tracked interest in so far this year, and 871st out of 896 news stories tracked since 2003.

The UMR Research Nationwide Omnibus Survey was conducted 22-26 November. It has a nationally representative sample of 750 New Zealanders 18 years and over. The margin of error for a 50% figure at the ‘95% confidence level’ is +/- 3.6%.


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